Sherlock Holmes – The True Story

Sherlock Homes is one of the world’s most recognisable literary figures. So famous in fact that he completely outshone his creator Sir Arther Conan-Doyle, much to the latter’s dismay.

Conan Doyle was much more interested in spiritualism than in writing more adventures for his detective hero, so in 1893 he killed him off, sending him tumbling over the Reichenbach Falls to his death. locked in combat with his mortal enemy Professor Moriarty.

The short story in which Holmes perishes was called “The Final Problem”, though it may better be thought of as the final solution to the ‘problem’ of Holmes’ excessive popularity.  Unfortunately for Conan-Doyle, though fortunately for us, there was such a public outcry against the brutal demise of the popular hero that Conan-Doyle was compelled to bring him back in 1894 in the series, “The Return of Sherlock Holmes”.

Holmes’ death in The Final Problem is set in 1891 and his re-appearance in The Adventure of The Empty House in 1894, leaving a period of three years in which Holmes has disappeared. This period, never explained by Conan-Doyle, is known to Sherlockians as “The Great Hiatus”.

Over the years there have been a number of attempts by other authors to fill the missing period in Holmes’ life, but the best by far is the explanation given by Australian author Timothy Francis Sheil in The Sherlock Holmes Report, the first volume of which, under the title, The Siam Question, appeared in hard back in 1999*.

Sheil’s explanation of Sherlock Holmes’ absence centres upon Sherlock’s brother, Mycroft, head of Queen Victoria’s secret service. (Mycroft appeared several times in the first series of “Sherlock” starring Benedict Cumberbatch, BBC TV). According to Sheil, Mycroft despatched Sherlock on a secret mission for the Queen, which kept him out of the country, first in Egypt and then in Siam (now known as Thailand) for the three years he was away.

Sheil’s work attracted very favourable reviews when it was published, being described by Roger Johnson in The District Messenger (the journal of the Sherlock Holmes Society) as,

“a very handsome novel of over 600 pages…The Siam Question is an engrossing tale of high adventure nicely presented and well written… which Mr Sheil carries of admirably.”

Sadly owing to the illness of the author, volume II of The Sherlock Holmes Report, entitled The Egypt Question, has yet to see the light of day. We can but hope that the current renewed interest in the famous detective will prompt Sheil to pick up his pen once more.

*The Siam Question is availabe from Amazon http://www.amazon.co.uk/Siam-Question-Sherlock-Holmes-Report/dp/0953816001/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1325327074&sr=8-2 ISBN 0-9538160-0-1

Britain’s Empty Chair

In 1957 the British government led by Conservative Harold Macmillan declined to join the EEC, leaving the French and the Germans to design its rules to suit themselves. In 1993 the British Government, led by Conservative John Major declined to join the Euro project, leaving the French and Germans to devise its rules unassisted by Europe’s financial experts. In 2011 the British government, led by Conservative David Cameron declined to join the project to restructure the EU, thus ensuring that for the third time the rules will be made by the French and the Germans to suit themselves.

The only Conservative leader since the War to have any vision of the UK’s place in the world was Edward Heath. Perhaps his love of sailing made him aware of Britain as an island nation and the importance of getting on with our trading partners. Of the other prime ministers, the one that stands out as having a grasp of the big picture is Tony Blair, who felt an immediate rapport with Paddy Ashdown. The latter’s military history had taught him the value of alliances and his internationalist view is carried on by Nick Clegg.

All the others, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher (who thought of the country as a big household), Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard, Douglas-Hulme were petty nationalists, Little Englanders, Little Scots or Little Welsh, with no vision beyond the white cliffs of Dover.

For the Conservatives, this situation is unlikely to change, as most of the party activists and officials in the party heartlands are hard line right wingers of the UKIP persuasion, so no moderates or pro Europeans are likely to be selected for the blues. The reasons for this state of affairs will be examined in the next edition.

Avanta goes to Reading

I saw a report this week that Avanta has opened a new business centre in Reading in a building  leased to the Prudential. The centre offers 250 workstations and is situated in a picturesque spot next to the Rover Kennet.

At first sight this is an odd move. Reading is already well supplied with  business centres and has had for a number of years a higher than average vacancy rate in conventional space. Why would Avanta, whose managing director, David Alberto, never overpays for anything, want to enter this over supplied market?

One imagines that  David negotiated a sweet deal to take over the Prudential’s lease, but apart from that, the clue may well be in the fact that this centre was opened in partnership with The Asset Factor (www.theassetfactor.com). The Asset Factor is a very interesting organisation led by the triumvirate of Matthew Punshon, Keith Perry and Oliver Jones.

Matthew was the founder of Trillium, which after its acquisition by Land Securities seemed poised to revolutionise the notion of flexible space with its Landflex product. Sadly this was a product before its time and it never achieved its promise in the change resistant UK property world.

Oliver and Keith are also both heavyweights in the property and services field with Oliver responsible for devising Regus’s successful Netspace product.

David Alberto is no intellectual slouch either so the industry should expect great things from the combined brainpower of four talented individuals. Mark Dixon, with whom both David and Oliver have previously worked, had better look out!

 

Business Centre Market Penetration

I was prompted by a tweet this morning to consider the question of market penetration of business centres/serviced offices in the UK market. The tweet was from easyoffices and it reported the fact that there are three business centres in Preston, Lancashire. The report caused to wonder how what the population of Preston is and how that number of business centres compared to the average and to other towns and cities in the UK.

According to officebroker.com, the best source of recent data about the business centre industry, there are over 2,000 business centres in the UK, meaning that on average there are three for each 100,000 inhabitants. Preston has a population of 132,000 indicating that there should be four centres rather than three. It is thus a little below average.

We have always felt that any town of city of at least 25,000 inhabitants is big enough to support a modest sized business centre, particularly if there is a hinterland that is not completely deserted. Having a business centre or serviced office is becoming part of the vital business infrastructure of any town or city. Councillors please take note!

More Eurosceptic drivel from T1ps

Tom Winnifrith, London’s best tipster for small cap stocks has long been a Eurosceptic. In the newsletter for his Gold Fund, he recently said the following, “It is clear that the UK has only thus far avoided becoming the next Spain or Portugal because it has remained outside of the Euro. Our floating currency has provided us with a crucial lifeline in the form of better international competitiveness, whilst our independent monetary policy has enabled us to cut interest rates faster and deeper than would otherwise have been the case. The Bank of England has even been able to support government spending through its quantitative easing programme, yet another buttress of support that would be absent had the UK joined the Euro.”

This is complete rubbish. While it may be true that having a floating sterling enables us to maintain competitivness, this is just a euphemism. What our government has been engaged in is continual debasement of the currency, the modern equivalent of clipping the silver coins. A reliance on debasing the currency is comparable to an addiction to cocaine; you will never really get better until to stop doing it, because each devaluation or debasement gives you a temporary ‘high’ so that you forget to make the structural changes necessary for long term health.

The Office Group looks for new funding

According to a report in The Daily Telegraph, Office Group investor Bridge Ventures has appointed Cavendish Corporate Finance to advise on finding investors to back the company’s expansion.

Bridge Ventures, which invested in The Office Group in 2003 through its Sustainable Property fund, would like to sell all or part of its stake as part of the process.

The Office Group was founded in 2003 by Charlie Green, who formerly worked for MWB and then set up Reflex along with Robert Schogger, and by Ollie Olsen, also ex MWB, now joint managing directors. The Office has six locations, five in London and one in Bristol, and says that its mission is “to create a product that would stand apart from the competition – simpler, design-led, greener and still offer value.”

According to the Telegraph the deal is likely to value the business at £40 million to £50 million, no doubt owing to the fact that it contains a number of freehold buildings.

Given the difficulty of raising capital in the current market, it will be interesting to see if Bridge Ventures manages its exit. Cavendish Corporate Finance specialises in selling businesses, but is not thought to have any experience with serviced offices.

Global Housing Foundation appoints daughter of founder as new Director

Robyn Frank, New Director of GHF

April 12, 2010- NEW YORK- The Global Housing Foundation (GHF) President, Sharon Young, is pleased to announce the appointment of Robyn Frank of New York City as Director serving on the International Board. Daughter of GHF Founder, E. Rene Frank, Robyn brings her extensive experience in human shelter issues to support the challenge from the United Nations HABITAT to forge a public-private partnership to help solve the housing crisis around the world. “My sisters Debbie Petersen and Colette Fraenkel and I are pleased to serve on the Board and have the opportunity to stand behind such a noble endeavor. The Global Housing Foundation was our father’s brainchild and a legacy that needs to be preserved. Rene Frank’s daughters will carry on and grow our father’s dream.” GHF is a Non-Profit, United Nations NGO Partner with UN HABITAT devoted to leveraging the expertise and resources of the private real estate community to build affordable housing for the working poor.

Regus 2009 Results out today – the industry matures

Regus, the world’s leading business centre operating and management company  has today released its annual results for the year ending 31st December 2009.

Despite an increase in average capacity, measured by number of workstations, of 1% over the year, revenues fell by 2.1% reflecting a drop in average occupancy in mature centres from 84.7% in 2008 to 79.7% in 2009. Post tax earnings fell by a significant 41.1% with Revenue from Available Workstations (REVPAW) falling 7% to £6,535 from £7,029. All of these results were flattered by the fall in the value of sterling compared to the US$ and Euro and currencies linked to them and the results would have been worse with a fall in revenues of over 11% had sterling not weakened as it did. Results from the UK market, where the fall in sterling obviously has no impact were worst of all with revenues down 13.3% despite a fall in occupancy of only 3%.

Looked at in isolation these results might appear dreadful, but in the context of the worst economic recession since the end of World War II, they are actually not at all bad in our view. Three things in particular give us confidence about this business. First, its ability to generate cash. Mark Dixon shows the attentiveness to cash of a person who has come close to running out of it on more than one occasion. Despite the downturn, net cash increased by £25.2 million to £237 million and free cash flow for the year was over £80 million. We regard this is proving that, as we have always maintained, the business centre industry is a machine for printing money and that Mark Dixon knows how to run it well.

Second, we are encouraged by Regus’s ability to succeed in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific where revenues and contribution (gross profit) rose by 9.4% and 7.7% respectively. We agree that the company has barely scratched the surface of potential demand for flexible work space and virtual offices so the growth potential remains considerable.

The third cause for reassurance is the management’s focus on costs. The best way to get into trouble in this industry is to let costs get out of control or to tie yourself in to high fixed costs. This was what led to Regus getting into difficulty in 2001/02. The company has a cost savings plan and claims to be £54 million ahead of target in implementing it. These things are by their nature difficult to assess objectively from outside, but given the recent furore in the press over the company’s plans to re-negotiate the leases on some of their underperforming UK centres, it seems that this is something with substance.

Overall therefore, not a bad performance, given the dreadful economic background and lots of scope for further development of the business in the absence of any serious competition, notwithstanding a lot of hot air from Servcorp, the Australian based operator. It is perhaps surprising that no business services group from outside the industry has thought to challenge Regus’s domination of flexible office space. Whilst it would not be easy to take on Regus’s 938 locations in 78 countries, it is by no means impossible to construct a viable competitor in, say, the top 50 markets globally. Food for thought.

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